The fickle nature of juveniles is well documented in horse racing, but as both exposure and distance rise, finding a winner can be less of a stab in the dark.
As the Sydney Autumn Racing Carnival draws to a close, it has again showcased that aspect about some of Australia's most precocious talents, particularly in its flagship race, the Golden Slipper (1,200m) at Rosehill on March 22.
A furlong from home, it was still anyone's race - even if this year's renewal was not as chaotic, except for Within The Law spectacularly crashing through the rails down the back - before Marhoona emerged for ex-Kranji trainer Michael Freedman.
Two weeks later, only three Golden Slipper contenders (even the winner opted out) stepped out in the Group 1 Inglis Sires' Produce (1,400m) at Randwick, with another 200m not within the compass of all those raw speedballs.
Victorian Vinrock got his neck in front where it mattered in a thrilling five-way go.
Golden Slipper favourite and runner-up Wodeton lost no marks but again found a few better - three this time. But eye-catchers State Visit and Buffalo, second and third respectively in the blanket finish, had not come to the end of their runs or preps.
Unsurprisingly, their connections could not possibly pass up the last of the three Group 1s for 2YOs on April 19, the A$1 million (S$836,000) Champagne Stakes - the 1,600m beckoning the most.
The Sires' has been over the years the best guide to the Champagne, with 16 of their last winners going on to do the Champagne double in the last 20 years, with Militarize the most recent horse to pull it off in 2023.
Perhaps the strongest case can me made for a horse who does not hail from the most fashionable stable, Buffalo, but the thing is he still carries a P-plate.
In the Sires', the Written By chestnut loomed as a prominent chance at the 300m, but shied away when State Visit rolled out in front of him.
Zac Purton had to ride hands and heels for a few strides. When the Hong Kong ace pulled the whip again, Newcastle trainer David Atkins' ward powered home to miss out by a long neck.
State Visit, who finished just a pimple ahead of Buffalo in the Sires', should be a factor, especially as the Ciaron Maher camp feedback since that run had been a solid thumbs-up.
With the Listed Fernhill Mile (1,600m) being another valuable lead-up - Broadsiding did the Fernhill/Champagne double in 2024 - the 2025 winner Spicy Lu will also draw admirers.
Nick Olive's unbeaten four-in-a-row bidder is the proven miler, but the Fernhill was a slowly run affair that day. The fairy-tale run may fizzle out in the Champagne.
But if there is one family who has popped the bubbly three times in the 164-year-old feature - Dracula (1998), Viscount (Rocket Man's sire, 2001) and Mentality (2006) - and worthy of a close look for a fourth, it is Team Hawkes.
They have a Brutal colt aptly-named Nepotism to keep it in the family this year. He has been installed favourite on the back of the way he put his rivals to the sword in the Group 3 Baillieu Stakes (1,400m) at Rosehill on April 1.
Distance-wise, proven pedigree points towards a progeny by Dundeel like Within The Law, who atoned for his Slipper rodeo show, with a fast-finishing third to Tempted in the Group 3 Percy Sykes Stakes (1,200m) on April 12.
manyan@sph.com.sg
